I vantaggi del riscaldamento globale

Nascondere la testa nella sabbia è diventato molto più facile ora che mezzo mondo è diventato un deserto.

Se vi dicessi il titolo, finirebbe la sorpresa.

validità generale....................................... 

Parlerò allora di qualche piccolo trucco del mestiere, che potreste trovare utile.

Per esempio, se qualcuno fa un discorso, come si fa a capire di che cosa sta parlando, se quello che dice è fondato o meno?

E’ molto semplice. Fate come i bambini.fategli delle domande ingenue, come farebbe un bambino, ma pertinenti; domande intelligenti, e cioè profonde, interessanti, oneste, franche, dirette, non cose complicate e vedrete che quel tale andrà immediatamente nel pallone.

E, se è onesto, vi dirà che non è in grado di rispondere.

E’essenziale riconoscere l’importanza di questa cosa.

Vorrei illustrare ora un aspetto non scientifico del mondo, che se fosse più scientifico sarebbe molto meglio per tutti.
Ha a che fare con la politica.

Supponiamo che due candidati alla presidenza stiano facendo la loro campagna elettorale in una zona rurale.

A uno viene posta la domanda: <<Che cosa intende fare per i problemi dell’agricoltura? >> e lui spara subito la sua risposta, bang bang bang.

Poi arriva l’altro candidato <<Che cosa intende fare per i problemi dell’agricoltura? >>.

<<Beh, non saprei. Io ero un generale, e non so niente d’agricoltura. Ma non dev’essere una cosa tanto facile, perché negli ultimi dodici quindici, venti anni tutti ci hanno provato e di risultati se ne sono visti pochi.
Per cercare di risolvere il problema credo che la cosa migliore sia di riunire intorno ad un tavolo degli esperti, gente che ne sappia qualcosa, e studiare insieme cos’è stato fatto in passato.
Ci vorrà del tempo, ma poi arriveremo ad una conclusione ragionevole.
Non chiedetemi di dirvi in anticipo quale sarà.
Posso solo dirvi che in linea di massima cercheremo di  non peggiorare la condizione dei singoli contadini, di tener conto di tutte le situazioni particolari, eccetera, eccetera.>>

Ora da noi un politico così fa poca strada,credo; e comunque nessuno ci ha mai provato.La gente vuole delle risposte, e chi è in grado di dargliene è meglio ai suoi occhi di chi non gliene dà, mentre nella maggior parte dei casi è proprio vero il contrario.
E così i politici, in campagna elettorale ostentano certezze e si spingono a fare promesse che, è matematico, non possono mantenere.
Così alla fine nessuno ci crede più, ed ecco allora il rifiuto della politica, e una generale mancanza di rispetto per chi magari, i problemi cerca di risolverli davvero.
Sarà pure una visione semplicistica la mia, ma mi pare innegabile che all’origine di molti nostri guai ci sia quest’ansia della gente di volere una risposta, invece che di cercare chi ha un metodo per arrivare alla risposta.Ora passiamo ad un altro punto........................................

Provate ad indovinare chi è l'autore di questo stralcio da una serie di tre conferenze.Pubblicate in un libro solo l'anno scorso.

Ha vissuto tanto quanto quasi tutto il cosidetto "secolo breve".
E ha partecipato ad uno dei più impressionanti progetti mai realizzati dall'umanità.

Un umano finissimo.

Uno di quelli che occorrerebbero in questo secolo che potrebbe diventare quello finale. 

Marco Sclarandis 
 

Lo stesso effetto

Non fa lo stesso effetto

sfiatar da dietro a Capodanno

in un hangar o Aula Magna desolati

o farlo in ascensore a Ferragosto

lo capisce una birba di prima elementare

e tu che c’hai la barba e la ruga stiracchiata

più non lo ricordi né comprendi

finchè di sfintere si colpiva

in singolar tenzone con il toro

l’oca ed il maiale

un ligio ordine regnava

ora sgasiamo di marmitta e ciminiera

con nembi e cumuli in competizione

ed ansimiamo prima che sia Estate

non stiamo scherzando  a Carnevale

da soli come fessi ci asfissiamo

bimbi lasciati a giocare incauti e soli

con buste di nylon della spesa a fare

gli astronauti in atmosfere d’altri mondi.

Marco Sclarandis

Cthulhu: perché no?

Perché accontentarsi del male minore?

 

Resisto

Leggo per te che non hai legge

e poco carattere possiedi

faccio di conto per te che niente conti

e meno d’uno vali per certe colte menti

imparo più che posso e poso sulle mensole

per te che vivi di mense e stando al sole

resisto a farmi servo dell’impero

perché tu non sei impuro per il fango

ma per sorriso finto nellla smorfia

resisto in questo mondo a perdere

fluttuante in lotte futili inutili battaglie

non tolgo sughero a bottiglia

ancora non giunta a riva col messaggio

non sapendo più perché lo faccio

ma sentendo quale sinistro rombo

sia quanto m’attira il buio della fossa

distoglimi dal quel gelido silenzio

regno di luminescenti mostri

tu che analfabeta vivi e sopravvivi

tra sospiri pur di raggiungere l'omega.

Marco Sclarandis

Post Scriptum to "Our Warming World" : A Broader Analytic Framework for Consideration

The various systems of Earth listed below are under ongoing stress from changes in several key variables all of which are anthropogenic.

The first is increases in temperature which was described and explained in the earlier post.  

The second is diminishing fossil fuels and other resources (peak oil, peak uranium, but also peak various other minerals and etc.)  (it is explained in a number of peak oil articles by various experts)

The third is the increase in human population;  (well explained by demographers)

The fourth is increasing pollution and the degrading of the environment through assorted micro pollutants (various toxins in both the atmosphere, the land and the oceans and macro pollutants such as trash in the oceans and etc.)  (and much literature exists on this too) (but including also carbon dioxide and other gases which cause the increases in temperature)

So the basic and main stressors are increasing temperature, diminishing resources, increasing population and increasing pollution.

Each of these factors stresses each and every one of the following systems and the effects of each factor are of course interactive with the effects of all the others.  

And all the systems being stressed are characterized by some of the same properties of all complex systems and namely by complex internal feedback loops of both an amplifying nature and a dampening nature and by generally non-linear and interactive dynamics and by phenomena such as phase transitions, collapse, certain types of singularities and others. (Any good general systems theory book observes these characteristics in the empirical world and then explains them)

On the current Earth three categories of systems exist and each has several categories or subsystems within it:

PHYSICAL SYSTEMS  (created by and in the different phases and periods of cosmic evolution; and these are subject to the laws of physics and other sciences)

-Geophysical systems
-Geochemical systems
-Geobiological systems

BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS  (created by biological evolution)

-Single organism systems

-Ecological multi-organism systems (with both macro and micro and flora and fauna organisms as their constituent elements; typically the organisms in these multi-organism systems co-evolved in complex webs once cosmic evolution progressed to the point where biological evolution could begin; their ecology and reciprocal relationships are therefore in a sense "locked in" biologically)

-Partial or regional or Biosphere-wide systems composed of several ecological systems (and so called habitats) also in ongoing interaction

SOCIAL SYSTEMS  (created by man and each based on various institutions)

-Economic Systems
-Social and Cultural Systems
-Political Systems

Each of the sub-systems under each main category of systems above interacts with all the others in that category

Each main category also interacts with the other main categories.

All the main categories of systems and their sub-systems react to changes in the four key anthropogenic variables listed at the beginning and namely:

-Temperature  (increasing)
-Resources  (decreasing)
-Population  (increasing)
-Pollution  (increasing)

Naturally the above main categories and sub-categories of systems are simply the way man has chosen to break down the overall single organic system which is the total actual indivisible interactive reality of physical, biological, and social systems that exist on planet earth,  into "mind-sized" human academic disciplines and their respective theories and "models"

A superior intelligence from outer space probably would not choose to create artificial disciplinary boundaries but would instead consider the overall earth system as a single organic and interactive whole.

By doing so, he/she probably would make fewer mistakes in describing, explaining and anticipating its behavior.

Bearing in mind that fully anticipating the behavior of the entire system is actually impossible because of certain characteristics of complex systems.

Namely certain conditions and drivers of the system only arise unpredictably at certain points in time and then have significant causal effects.  It is impossible to determine what those effects will be before their (in turn unpredictable) causes even have arisen and developed sufficiently to have effects.  Multiply this phenomenon a thousand or a million fold and one then easily understands why articulating anything but the broadest and most general scenarios is impossible.  (also mathematically and logically)

But in rough terms it is actually quite easy to predict that there will be significant changes and that the overall organic system is not stable and also non-linear in its behavior.  

There are just 9 types of systems responding to 4 types of variables.

Just keeping that in mind may help to steer (or at least understand) the overall system better.

Recapitulating the 9 systems are:          And the 4 stressing variables are:

Geophysical         Temperature
Geochemical         Resources
Geobiological                  Population
Biological                  Pollution
Ecological
Multi-ecological
Economic
Social & Cultural
Political

Displayed as was done above it is easy to see how each key variable will affect each system and how all the systems continually interact with one another.

All one has to do is draw a matrix of two way arrows between the variables on the right and those on the left and another set of two way arrows vertically next to each set of variables (those to the left and those to the right) to indicate their own interactivity among themselves.

And Donella Meadows article on "Leverage Points" at the following link http://www.sustainer.org/pubs/Leverage_Points.pdf  is one of the best papers on systems theory in existence regarding how one can go about trying to steer an overall complex system by intervening in time and at the right leverage points- (intervening late or on the wrong leverage points presents an entirely new situation and so Yes, "the boat CAN be missed") to try to guide the overall system in directions which presumably are more desirable in the short term. (to humankind)

And “presumably” only because it cannot be a foregone ex-ante axiomatic conclusion that preventing a 95% collapse of human population on earth in the next 50 or 100 years (if that even proves to be possible) may not in fact be the very  best thing for the longer term survival of humanity.

Assuming that that too could be an axiomatic objective, a view that amoebas, paramecium, bacteria and grasshoppers and fish and grass and algae and oak trees could well beg to differ with?

Our Warming World: Temperature Trends, Indicators and Impacts: Part of the future is already here; more is to come

PAST TEMPERATURES

                                                           RECENT TEMPERATURES

                                                          FUTURE TEMPERATURES





















                                                           PHYSICAL INDICATORS

IMPACTS

Sea Level Rises:

Below follow the other most significant impacts to geophysical, biological and social systems as drawn from a Wikipedia article on the effects of climate change:


GEOPHYSICAL SYSTEMS:

-Biogeochemical Cycles: Climate change can have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive feedback process; Unanimous agreement was found among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the land and ocean carbon cycle to absorb human-induced CO2.

-Gas Hydrates: Future warming at intermediate depths in the world's oceans, as predicted by climate models, will tend to destabilize gas hydrates resulting in the release of large quantities of methane

-Sea Ice: As the climate warms, snow cover and sea ice extent decrease.

-Glaciers: Warming temperatures lead to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. IPCC found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres. This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps has contributed to observed sea level rise.

-Oceans: The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation

- Ocean Acidification: It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all CO2 generated by human activities since 1800 (118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon from 1800 to 1994). In water, CO2 becomes a weak carbonic acid, and the increase in the greenhouse gas since the Industrial Revolution has already lowered the average pH (the laboratory measure of acidity) of seawater by 0.1 units, to 8.2. Predicted emissions could lower the pH by a further 0.5 by 2100, to a level probably not seen for hundreds of millennia and, critically, at a rate of change probably 100 times greater than at any time over this period.

-Thermohaline Circulation: There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.

-Extreme Weather:

   -In increase in global mean temperature of about 0 to 2 °C by 2100 relative to the 1990–2000
    period would result in increased fire frequency and intensity in many areas.

   -Increased areas will be affected by drought

   -There will be increased intense tropical cyclone activity

   -There will be increased incidences of extreme high sea level


BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS:

-Hundreds of studies have documented responses of ecosystems, plants, and animals to the climate changes that have already occurred. For example, in the Northern Hemisphere, species are almost uniformly moving their ranges northward and up in elevation in search of cooler temperatures.

-By the year 2100, ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric CO2 levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000 years, and global temperatures at least among the highest of those experienced in the past 740,000 years. Significant disruptions of ecosystems are projected to increase with future climate change. Examples of disruptions include disturbances such as fire, drought, pest infestation, invasion of species, storms, and coral bleaching events. The stresses caused by climate change, added to other stresses on ecological systems (e.g., land conversion, land degradation, harvesting, and pollution), threaten substantial damage to or complete loss of some unique ecosystems, and extinction of some critically endangered species.

-Climate change has been estimated to be a major driver of biodiversity loss in cool conifer forests, savannas, mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests, in the Arctic tundra, and in coral reefs. In other ecosystems, land-use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity loss at least in the near-term. Beyond the year 2050, climate change may be the major driver for biodiversity loss global

SOCIAL SYSTEMS:

-The impacts of climate change can be thought of in terms of sensitivity and vulnerability. "Sensitivity" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be affected, positively or negatively, by climate change and/orclimate variability. "Vulnerability" is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be adversely affected by climate change.

-The sensitivity of human society to climate change varies. Sectors sensitive to climate change include water resources, coastal zones, human settlements, and human health. Industries sensitive to climate change include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, construction, insurance, financial services, tourism, and recreation.

-General circulation models project that the future climate change will bring wetter coasts, drier mid-continent areas, and further sea level rise. Such changes could result in the gravest effects of climate change through sudden human migration. Millions might be displaced by shoreline erosions, river and coastal flooding, or severe drought.

-Migration related to climate change is likely to be predominantly from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities. In the short term climate stress is likely to add incrementally to existing migration patterns rather than generating entirely new flows of people. It has been argued that environmental degradation, loss of access to resources (e.g., water resources), and resulting human migration could become a source of political and even military conflict.

ABRUPT OR IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES:

Physical, ecological and social systems may respond in an abrupt, non-linear or irregular way to climate change. This is as opposed to a smooth or regular response. A quantitative entity behaves "irregularly" when its dynamics are discontinuous (i.e., not smooth), nondifferentiable, unbounded, wildly varying, or otherwise ill-defined. Such behaviour is often termed "singular." Irregular behaviour in Earth systems may give rise to certain thresholds, which, when crossed, may lead to a large change in the system. Some singularities could potentially lead to severe impacts at regional or global scales.

 PART OF THE FUTURE IS ALREADY HERE:

Climate change is already damaging global economy, report finds

Economic impact of global warming is costing the world more than $1.2 trillion a year, wiping 1.6% annually from global GDP

• Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent
• guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 26 September 2012 04.00 BST

Bangladeshi villagers rebuild an embankment after cyclone Aila hit in 2009. Bangladesh faces total losses of about 3-4% of GDP due to climate change. Photograph: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP/Getty Images

Climate change is already contributing to the deaths of nearly 400,000 people a year and costing the world more than $1.2 trillion, wiping 1.6% annually from global GDP, according to a new study.

The impacts are being felt most keenly in developing countries, according to the research, where damage to agricultural production from extreme weather linked to climate change is contributing to deaths from malnutrition, poverty and their associated diseases.

Air pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels is also separately contributing to the deaths of at least 4.5m people a year, the report found.

The 331-page study, entitled Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A Guide to the Cold Calculus of A Hot Planet and published on Wednesday, was carried out by the DARA group, a non-governmental organisation based in Europe, and the Climate Vulnerable Forum. It was written by more than 50 scientists, economists and policy experts, and commissioned by 20 governments.

By 2030, the researchers estimate, the cost of climate change and air pollution combined will rise to 3.2% of global GDP, with the world's least developed countries forecast to bear the brunt, suffering losses of up to 11% of their GDP.

Sheikh Hasina, prime minister of Bangladesh, said: "A 1C rise in temperature [temperatures have already risen by 0.7C globally since the end of the 19th century] is associated with 10% productivity loss infarming. For us, it means losing about 4m tonnes of food grain, amounting to about $2.5bn. That is about 2% of our GDP. Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are faced with a total loss of about 3-4% of GDP. Without these losses, we could have easily secured much higher growth."

But major economies will also take a hit, as extremes of weather and the associated damage – droughts, floods and more severe storms – could wipe 2% of the GDP of the US by 2030, while similar effects could cost China $1.2tr by the same date.

While many governments have taken the view that climate change is a long-term problem, there is a growing body of opinion that the effects are already being felt. Scientists have been alarmed by the increasingly rapid melting of Arctic sea ice, which reached a new record minimum this year and, if melting continues at similar rates, could be ice free in summer by the end of the decade. Some research suggests that this melting could be linked to cold, dull and rainy summers in parts of Europe – such as has been the predominant summer weather in the UK for the last six years. In the US, this year's severe drought has raised food prices and in India the disruption to the monsoon has caused widespread damage to farmers.

Connie Hedegaard, the European Union's climate chief, warned that extreme weather was becoming more common, as the effects of climate change take hold. "Climate change and weather extremes are not about a distant future," she wrote in a comment for the Guardian last week. "Formerly one-off extreme weather episodes seem to be becoming the new normal."

Michael Zammit Cutajar, former executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said: "Climate change is not just a distant threat but a present danger – its economic impact is already with us."